COMPAS Poll/Survey

1.1. Confirmatory Finding—Conservative Victory

As detailed below, this new COMPAS poll confirms the preponderance of findings from the polls of most firms, including COMPAS’ early in the campaign, that the Conservatives are en route to victory. As in our previous poll, we anticipate a large Conservative victory, virtually large enough to assure a majority—46% vs. 26% for the NDP, as detailed below in section 2.1.

1.2. New Finding # 1—the NDP Has By Far the Most to Fear and the Most to Hope for

This national COMPAS poll focuses on voter stability. Two dramatic findings are that as many as 61% of all voters say that they may change their mind and that the NDP vote is especially unpredictable. Far more than any other party’s support, the NDP support is capable of both a major collapse and a sizeable further increase depending upon what goes through the minds of voters during the last few hours and depending also on the strength of the NDP machine.

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