COMPAS Poll/Survey
May 2, 2011
 

Inflation

  Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in Canadian Business
 
Categories:  
Policy and Opinion
Consumer and Lifestyle
Business and Finance

The CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS business panel are somewhat united in a concern that inflationary pressures will harm the average Canadian household. But they are divided in most of their other forecasts.
Business panellists are divided about

  • The accuracy of current discussions and of the Bank of Canada’s inflation rat—with a slight tendency to suspect that both discussions (28% overestimate, 38% underestimate) and the posted rate (24% overestimate, 30% underestimate) may understate the true rate of inflation;

  • Inflation rates one and two years from now—with widely divergent forecasts made by panel members, partly because of some concern about deflation risk, and average forecasts edging up (3.4% in April, 2012, 3.9% in April, 2013;

  • Whether the Bank of Canada will priorize controlling inflation rates or preventing the value of the loonie from rising too much against the USD and other foreign currencies with the edge going to controlling inflation rates—69% to control inflation vs 13% not to control inflation and 48% to prevent the loonie from appreciating against the USD vs. 24% not doing do;

  • Whether oil price uncertainty, food costs, or the U.S. economy will be the main source of inflation over the next year—with oil uncertainty being the main driver of inflation over the next few months but joined by other factors, especially inflation from the U.S. and China, a year from now; and

  • How much harm will befall the economy as a result of inflation—business panellists’ own businesses and the economy may suffer while the average household will suffer for sure.

These are the key findings from this week’s survey of the COMPAS business panel undertaken for Canadian Business magazine.

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