COMPAS Poll/Survey
November 14, 2011

Part 2: Investment Risk, Second of a Two Part Series on Housing

Canadian Housing Market Risk—Modest Probability of a Modest Downturn in Prices

  Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in Canadian Business
Policy and Opinion
Consumer and Lifestyle
Business and Finance
The Canadian housing market faces a modest risk of a modest downturn in prices. The CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS panel assign a 27% probability of a downturn in prices within two years (table 2.3). The median forecast change in price involves a decline of less than 5% (table 2.4).

In the eyes of panelists, the main downward pressures stem from a high ratio of prices to household income and the risk of an increase in mortgage rates (table 2.1).

The main upward pressures stem from high immigration rates and Asian and other foreign buyers seeking safe havens for placing investments (table 2.2).

These are the key findings from this past week's Internet survey of CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS panel. The weekly business survey is undertaken for Canadian Business magazine.

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